It was a 3–0 day yesterday, which is always good for the soul. Will it be good for the bets? We’ve got work to do on that front.
Washington at New York (AL)
Heat Index’s second choice is unchanged today. Over the last 6+ series, the Yankees are the fourth-best hitting and sixth-best pitching team in the majors.
Pick: New York to win –187. 0.37 units to win 0.20. Gore and Gil must start.
Minnesota at Toronto
Heat Index’s first choice is also unchanged. Over the last 6+ series, only the Mets have out-hit the Blue Jays.
Pick: Toronto to win –192. 0.38 units to win 0.20. Ober and Bassitt must start.
Colorado at Houston
On the spot-based side, we like the Rockies at this price. Hunter Brown’s one of the best in the game, but Tanner Gordon isn’t as bad as his 7.11 ERA. That isn’t saying much, but this is a 7.11 ERA line. Get that man down into the 6’s!
Pick: Colorado to win +302. 0.07 units to win 0.21. Gordon and Brown must start.
ALCS
The Yankees started the week with a routine win over the Nationals, and that’s the kind of thing we might see more of down the stretch. Per FanGraphs, they have the easiest remaining schedule in the American League, something which might be enough to get them back ahead of the Red Sox for the 4-seed despite losing the tiebreaker. That potential home-field advantage is a key, especially if it’s Boston they have to host.
Pick: New York to win +500. 2.00 units to win 10.00.
World Series
On the NL side, there’s nothing that special about the Mets’ remaining schedule. The Reds’ is tough, though, which should combine with the Mets’ lead and the Mets being better than the Reds to keep these guys in a postseason slot. Once there, this isn’t a bad price for a good roster.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –496.01 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 640 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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