Apologies for this, but there probably won’t be college football futures this week. The model’s ready enough for them, but we’re still figuring out how best to break up our bankroll between daily bets, NFL futures, CFB futures, and our big MLB futures portfolio—which isn’t going to start paying out for another four weeks. We think there’s value on teams to miss the playoffs right now (and sometimes make them), so we might swoop in tomorrow or Saturday with a few of those picks, but the current plan is to let Week 1 pass and see where Movelor lands.
We do, however, have some college football action tonight. Let’s get to that and the rest.
Boise State at USF
When it comes to college football, we try to be open about our terrible early-season track record. We’re following Movelor’s lead on the next three, but in FBS vs. FBS games, the market usually beats Movelor.
To counter that, we’re planning on trying two things this weekend. First, we’re rolling with some unders, betting on offenses to come together more slowly than defenses in an era of high roster turnover. Second, we’re rolling with underdogs on moneylines, going back to our (pretty successful) bowl game theory that while spreads stay efficient in a low-information setting, the market underestimates uncertainty levels, meaning a 5.5-point spread in Week 1 should come with a moneyline closer to even than it would in Week 11.
In this game, there are additional reasons to like the under, namely that if Boise State does handle business, they’re likelier to do it on the ground. Ashton Jeanty was and is phenomenal, but he had a solid offensive line. Maddux Madsen was good, but defenses tried to make him beat them.
We’re keeping units exceptionally small on all of these. They’re small for baseball right now, and we like how baseball is going. Our bankroll is thin.
Pick: USF to win +180. 0.07 units to win 0.13.
Pick: Under 62 (–115). 0.13 units to win 0.11.
Lafayette at Bowling Green State
We’re wary of these early-season lines, but markets habitually overestimate the Patriot League in nonconference play. That might change as it beefs up, adding teams like Richmond. But if it does change, it’ll take a year to ripple through elo-ish systems like ours and the ones that drive FCS markets. Bowling Green’s probably pretty bad. They’re still probably more than three touchdowns better than the Leopards.
Pick: Bowling Green –21 (–110). 0.13 units to win 0.12.
Delaware State at Delaware
Similar phenomenon here, but with the MEAC. The MEAC does not perform well in nonconference. It doesn’t hurt that Delaware brings back a lot of its guys. (Shoutout to Bill Connelly’s returning production numbers.)
Pick: Delaware –30.5 (–115). 0.13 units to win 0.11.
Towson at Norfolk State
And in a pure FCS game, we like Towson…warily. It’s Michael Vick’s first game as head coach. ESPN’s broadcasting First Take from the Norfolk State campus. That’s creating a bigger impact in the lines than it will in the stands. Sometimes this backfires—we often see MEAC teams outpunch their weight in the real huge games, like the Celebration Bowl (possible explanation is focus/motivation)—but we’re going to roll with it tonight.
Pick: Towson –9 (–120). 0.14 units to win 0.12.
Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Miles Mikolas has either walked more batters than he’s struck out or allowed more home runs than he’s recorded strikeouts in three of his last four starts. That’s bad. He’s getting older, and Braxton Ashcraft has shown some promise, and for what little it means, the Pirates are playing their best ball of the season.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +102. 0.30 units to win 0.31. Ashcraft and Mikolas must start.
Miami at New York (NL)
Heat Index’s first choice is the Mets, who have a 159 wRC+ over their last six series. Over the same timeframe, the Marlins have been the fourth-coldest team in baseball, better (by wRC+ and FIP) than only the Nationals, Rockies, and Guardians.
Pick: New York to win –243. 0.57 units to win 0.23. Mazur and Holmes must start.
New York (AL) at Chicago (AL)
Heat Index’s second choice is the Yankees. The White Sox have actually played pretty well lately by their standards, but the Yankees are hitting the ball hard, and today’s out-of-town scoreboards are only half-full.
Pick: New York to win –185. 0.43 units to win 0.23. Warren and Martin must start.
NL East
The Phillies will still probably win the NL East, and that will be bad for us on top of this because we were already heavier on the Mets there. But with the Blue Jays in a little bit of danger, we want to generate an extra out for the regular season portion of the portfolio. This gets us closer to having that out available.
Pick: New York to win +350. 2.00 units to win 7.00.
World Series
Across the East River, you can get the Yankees at 9-to-2 to win the ALCS. That’s not bad value. This, then, is great value. This implies that if the Yankees make the World Series, they’re only 42% likely to win it. This is wrong. Against everyone but the Dodgers, they’d probably be a favorite.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –495.32 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 646 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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