Last night’s pair of losses was devastating, and I don’t know that I can ever forgive Wake Forest.
With that covered.
Maryland @ Nebraska
74 is the target for each team here. Kenpom projects 69 possessions, making 1.072 the points-per-possession target. Nebraska’s hit that number in seven of its thirteen Big Ten games, but three of the last four and four out of six played at home. Maryland’s hit that number in nine of their thirteen Big Ten games, plus four of the last five. Each team’s defense is better than the Big Ten average, so there’s some doubt here, but I think markets might be undervaluing recency and overvaluing the 69–66 final from these teams’ first matchup with one another, in College Park last month.
Pick: Over 147.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
San Francisco @ Gonzaga
Gonzaga’s one of the faster-paced teams in the WCC, but they haven’t played in many track meets recently. Part of this is who they’ve played. Part is how their defense functions, forcing often overmatched conference opponents to take a lot of time hunting open looks. Both of those things still point towards a slower one tonight? San Francisco doesn’t play at a particularly fast tempo, and Gonzaga’s defense should cause the Dons some problems. The spread’s big here, but we’ll take a shot at the total.
Pick: Under 152.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –131.78 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 72 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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