Another good day of football yesterday. More of it today, plus baseball and the motorsports.
Baltimore at Buffalo
FPI thinks the Ravens are the best team in football, but not by enough to be favored here. (We blindly trust FPI. It usually works? We do usually bet the most prominent games, so I wonder if that’s the key. Busy markets where the public starts outweighing the impact of the sharps.)
Pick: Buffalo +1.5 (–110). 1.58 units to win 1.44.
Philadelphia at Miami
Nothing spot-based again today. September’s a tough time for spot-based betting, at least on the weekends when things are normally more chaotic.
Heat Index is on the same matchups it’s been on, except the Phillies are its top choice and…
Pick: Philadelphia to win –130. 1.87 units to win 1.44. Walker and Phillips must start.
New York (NL) at Cincinnati
…the Mets are now its second.
Pick: New York to win +107. 1.35 units to win 1.44. Sproat and Greene must start.
Italian Grand Prix (F1)
Max Verstappen’s been on the pole four times this year. Three times, one of the McLarens has beaten him. That’s a tiny sample but it does seem to be the baseline expectation, and in F1 races we like to bet the baseline expectation.
Pick: Either McLaren to win –185. 1.33 units to win 0.72.
Enjoy Illinois 300 (NASCAR Cup Series)
We’re doing these overnight, so we had a limited board on the NASCAR side. We could only bet someone to win. Out of the options, Denny Hamlin at 11-to-2 doesn’t seem like bad value. Plenty can go wrong, but he did qualify first, Penske didn’t look like it was set to dominate Gateway again, and he’s been good this year on the shorter intermediate tracks and longer short tracks. Won at Dover. Won at Darlington.
Pick: Denny Hamlin to win +550. 0.13 units to win 0.72.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –484.21 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 707 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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