A very bad choice last night (betting on Pitt to blow out UVA) turned out fine when the pair went scoreless over the last 1:51, saving us the under. Today, we’re back with more college basketball, but first, we’re going to check in on the Super Bowl line.
Super Bowl
We’ve already dabbled in this one. We put ten units down last week. We’ll put ten more down on Friday. We’re putting ten more down right here.
Why split it up? Basically, in case it moves or there’s a big change in circumstance. Also: Revisiting the topic gives us more content.
The line has indeed moved a little since last week. It’s moved towards the Eagles by half a point, although really—since we got the 1.5 number at –105 odds and we’re getting this at +100—it’s slightly less than that.
Either way, we’re still in on Philly. They’ve been the better team this season, and we’re happy to let that matter to us. We get the counterargument, but we think “which team was better?” is the one to trust.
Pick: Philadelphia +1 (+100). 10.00 units to win 10.00.
Oklahoma @ Auburn
Auburn is coming off a big road win. Auburn’s got a big one coming up against Florida on Saturday. Auburn hasn’t won by more than 13 in nearly a month. Oklahoma is unheralded but enters having put together their four best games of the season. There’s a very clear angle here for Auburn to get trapped.
Bettors don’t seem to see it that way. Against a 15-point kenpom line, they’ve pushed this out to a 17-point spread, the expectation evidently being that this is a night Auburn makes a statement. We’ll trust them, but as usual, we’ll include the under in case the favorite’s shots don’t fall.
Our hope is that Oklahoma scores 68 or fewer. That’d guarantee us one win and open the possibility of getting out of the night unscathed.
Pick: Auburn –17 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 154 (–116). 10.00 units to win 8.62.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –93.93 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 55 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
