No new CFP futures yet. What we like should still be there tomorrow if we want it. Instead, we’ve got bowl games, plus—at long last—the CFP First Round.
Alabama at Oklahoma
Alabama is so enticing. Their ceiling is as high as Ohio State’s. But so far, Kalen DeBoer hasn’t turned this program into a winner, and the theory that it was a problem only in big games went out the door in the SEC Championship. I guess you could say that wasn’t a big game, since they could have evidently lost by 100 and still made the playoff, but for this one, I think you have to go with the results on the field so far this year. Those results say Oklahoma should be the favorite at home.
We’re increasing our unit on these because Movelor went 8–3 against CFP closing spreads last year. One red flag—and this won’t be there tomorrow for at least two CFP games, leading to even bigger units—is that SP+ also likes Oklahoma. Last year, I think SP+ went 0–11 against closing CFP spreads. That’s a very small sample on both sides, but it’d take a 222-game additional sample of 50/50 results to make an 11–0 start negative EV. We’ve gotta pay attention.
Pick: Oklahoma to win –110. 14.72 units to win 13.38.
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan
The unit’s bigger here too, and that’s because over the last two years, we’ve cleaned up by blindly betting bowl game moneyline underdogs. The logic here is that spreads for bowl games are remarkably precise, but that the uncertainty is higher and the moneylines aren’t properly calibrated. A 3-point favorite in the regular season is likelier to win, our logic goes, than a 3-point favorite in a bowl game.
Pick: Kennesaw State to win +147. 9.10 units to win 13.38.
Memphis vs. NC State
Bowl game moneyline underdogs. Go Tigers.
Pick: Memphis to win +145. 9.23 units to win 13.38.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –509.32 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 998 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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