We’re up to 5–2–1 on the college football season, and one of those is a moneyline underdog. Is it too early to run out the clock?
Georgia Tech at Colorado
I do think people might be underestimating Colorado this year—a head coach’s ability to coach isn’t very correlated to his ability to overhype his son and turn his draft into a “slide”—but this is more about the fundamentals. A 3.5-point underdog in August is not as big an underdog as a 3.5-point underdog in November. Moneylines should reflect that, and they mostly don’t.
Pick: Colorado to win +155. 0.07 units to win 0.11.
Auburn at Baylor
And in Waco, we’re sticking with unders. We like our buddy’s concept that it takes longer for offenses to gel than it takes defenses.
Pick: Under 57 (–110). 0.11 units to win 0.10.
Atlanta at Philadelphia
This is both Heat Index’s second choice and a spot-based play. Ranger Suárez is coming off one of the best games any pitcher’s pitched this season. Kyle Schwarber just hit four home runs (and nearly hit five), expunging the taste of that Mets debacle from Phillies’ mouths. We think they get it done again.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –186. 0.85 units to win 0.46. Elder and Suárez must start.
Miami at New York (NL)
Heat Index’s first choice is again the Mets. The price is expensive, but we’ll let it ride.
Pick: New York to win –180. 0.37 units to win 0.21. Pérez and Tong must start.
Texas at Sacramento
In another on the spot-based side, good luck figuring out Jack Leiter. Still, kind of like those moneylines above, that goes both ways.
Pick: Texas to win +127. 0.20 units to win 0.25. Leiter and Springs must start.
NLCS
We still like the Mets’ value in postseason markets. They’re not a playoff lock, but they’re close, and the way the market’s handling that is creating some upside.
Pick: New York to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
World Series
We also like the Yankees, who we’ll remind you again are only available at +450 to win the ALCS despite this long World Series price. Weird times right now with futures pricing.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 12.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –495.86 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 654 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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