It’s been going well.
Let’s see if we can exercise restraint.
UConn at Syracuse
We’re sticking with unders, though we’ve jettisoned underdogs. Trying to protect our winnings until we get to October and Movelor’s found its groove.
Pick: Under 57.5 (–115). 0.78 units to win 0.68.
West Virginia at Ohio
We picked these unders partly because they’re large without being giant. They also feature teams where we think Week 1 might not have said as much as bettors think.
Pick: Under 58.5 (–110). 0.75 units to win 0.68.
Arizona State at Mississippi State
Not a lot to say about any of them, honestly. They were pretty arbitrarily chosen.
Pick: Under 59 (–110). 0.75 units to win 0.68.
Philadelphia at Miami
Nothing spot-based today, again in the spirit of restraint. The Phillies are Heat Index’s second choice again, and…
Pick: Philadelphia to win –154. 2.09 units to win 1.36. Luzardo and Alcantara must start.
New York (NL) at Cincinnati
…the Mets are again its first.
Pick: New York to win –129. 1.75 units to win 1.36. Tong and Singer must start.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.86 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 702 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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