Here’s the situation:
College basketball’s going poorly but we’re going to muddle through it.
Our NFL futures are in a weird spot.
What’s specifically happening with the NFL futures is that we have 51.05 units designated for that bankroll, but we’re guaranteed to get at least 69 back today, with a minimum profit of 9 units on the AFC Championship (we win 60 if the Broncos win, 9 if the Patriots win) and a maximum loss of 48 units on the NFC Championship (we lose 12 if the Rams win, 48 if the Seahawks win). Going into next week, then, we should have 120.05 units on hand in even our worst-case scenario. Will that be enough? Maybe. We’re pretty confident that the NFC champion will win the Super Bowl, given data points like Bo Nix’s injury, how much trouble the Patriots had burying a Texans team with Guy Fawkes playing quarterback, the top five teams in FPI all playing in the NFC, etc. Unfortunately, we kind of expect even a Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl to come with the Seahawks a –250 favorite. That’s a conservative estimate, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the public tugs on that line’s waistband, but we might still be looking at a 48-unit total loss even if we place all our eggs in the Seahawks’ basket should both favorites win today.
So, we have a future.
Super Bowl
We still don’t trust the Seahawks (more on them in a minute), but this at least gets us somewhere on them in the event they do win and play the Pats. It digs our potential Rams hole 23 units deeper, but if the Rams win today (and we still kind of think they will), we have 36 more units to work with anyway.
Ideally, the Broncos beat the Patriots and we have space to work with and all of this is fine. But if the Patriots win, we’re now close enough to combine a moneyline and a spread and an alt line and give ourselves a path to break even.
| Winner | Loser | Current Net |
| Broncos | Rams | 126.25 |
| Broncos | Seahawks | 90.25 |
| Rams | Broncos | -10.95 |
| Seahawks | Broncos | -11.60 |
| Patriots | Rams | -25.95 |
| Rams | Patriots | -61.95 |
| Patriots | Seahawks | -61.95 |
| Seahawks | Patriots | -62.60 |
Pick: Seattle to win +145. 23.00 units to win 33.35.
New England at Denver
We’re nervous about this, because the line did drop, but think of it this way: If these Patriots were playing a replacement-level football team in a tough road environment, would you expect them to cover 3.5? The Broncos really might be a replacement-level team, but we still haven’t seen very much from New England.
Pick: Denver +3.5 (–110). 6.08 units to win 5.53.
LA Rams at Seattle
We’re sticking with our guns here too. If Sam Darnold’s oblique is off OR if playoff experience matters, this line is too big. We only need one of those two things to be true to justify the play.
Pick: LA Rams +2.5 (–115). 6.36 units to win 5.53.
Oregon at Washington
We will roll with Seattle here. I don’t care how weird the Desmond Claude situation is. Right now, Oregon’s in worse shape.
(I think the size of this line and the fact it’s Washington against Dana Altman is holding bettors back. But the numbers back it up, and that’s with a conservative valuing of both the Nate Bittle injury and any momentum/groove factor.)
Pick: Washington –7.5 (–110). 3.18 units to win 2.77.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –555.24 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,045 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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