Great start to the NFL season last night, for us at least. More NFL tonight, more baseball, and more college football, including our first college football futures of the year.
Kansas City vs. LA Chargers
In FPI we trust.
Pick: LA Chargers +3 (–106). 1.15 units to win 1.08.
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
The Pirates did just sweep the Dodgers, and Johan Oviedo has been pitching well. But Oviedo rarely goes deep into games, which makes the value of those good innings smaller. The Brewers have cooled off, but they’re still a good baseball team.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –130. 2.01 units to win 1.55. Priester and Oviedo must start.
New York (NL) at Cincinnati
We’re always scared to bet against Andrew Abbott, but this is a pretty good price. Heat Index gets what Heat Index wants. Today, the Mets are Heat Index’s first choice.
Pick: New York to win –107. 1.17 units to win 1.09. Peterson and Abbott must start.
Philadelphia at Miami
Heat Index’s second choice is the Phillies, who can’t win a tiebreaker over the Brewers but still have plenty to play for. They lead the Mets by six for the division and the Dodgers by three for the bye. They trail Milwaukee by four in the loss column for home-field advantage through the World Series.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –215. 2.34 units to win 1.09. Sánchez and Bellozo must start.
ALCS
Don’t look now, but the Rays are two games back for the third AL Wild Card.
Pick: New York to win +390. 2.00 units to win 7.80.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +15000. 2.00 units to win 300.00.
James Madison at Louisville
This total is suspiciously low given how good Louisville’s offense should be, but “should be” and “is” are different, defenses have had all offseason to gameplan, and last week illustrated why the “offenses take a longer time to click” theory has legs. We do have three outs here: One is that Louisville pounds JMU and JMU can’t move the ball. One is that JMU does the basketball thing and tries to limit possession count in order to maximize variance. One is that JMU honors Curt Cignetti by trying to lose close in the hopes that it’ll be a leg up if they end up in a debate over the Group of Five’s CFP spot.
We’re so tempted by the JMU moneyline under our high–uncertainty principle, but we’re trying to stay disciplined. (This is especially dangerous for tomorrow, because if JMU does win tonight and we miss it we’re going to have a hard time holding ourselves back.)
Pick: Under 55 (–110). 0.60 units to win 0.55.
Heisman Trophy
There is so much that can go wrong, and I promise I will knock on a lot of wood.
But.
Rocco Becht is on pace for about 3,000 yards, and there’s a real chance Iowa State won’t be an underdog again before the Heisman ceremony.
200-to-1 is a good price.
Pick: Rocco Becht to win +20000. 1.00 unit to win 200.00.
CFP National Championship
Similarly knocking on wood here.
While I think the only realistic national championship picks right now are Ohio State and Georgia, Mississippi has as much of a claim to be in that next pack as anybody else. They were better last year than people realize, they’re better at reloading than just about anyone, and if the top of the SEC is soft again, there’s a chance they could even win the league. 40-to-1 is a great price for a team our model has as 5% championship-likely.
Pick: Mississippi to win +4000. 1.00 unit to win 40.00.
College Football Playoff
It’s early, and our model accounts for that but we’re still wary. We’re going to take two teams who should make the playoff, with our model implying the value’s great on both.
Pick: Oregon to make playoff –200. 4.00 units to win 2.00.
Pick: Miami to make playoff –115. 1.00 unit to win 0.87.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –491.22 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 697 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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