The losses keep coming, but at least we’ve got all that Chattanooga and Kent State futures upside.
Kent State at Loyola Chicago
I haven’t seen anything about Kymany Houinsou’s availability tonight, but if both these teams were at full strength and Rob Senderoff wasn’t getting coaching carousel rumors, I’d take Kent State at these odds. It seems likelier Houinsou’s out than it does that the Senderoff rumors are both real enough and recent enough and meaningful enough to make the difference.
Pick: Kent State +5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
UAB at UC Irvine
I’m a little worried kenpom is overrating the Big West, and that UAB might really be a flip–the–switch team. That last part feels like overkill, though. UC Irvine’s most likely the best team left in this tournament, and they’re playing at home. That should be enough tonight.
Pick: UC Irvine –3.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
NIT
Our probabilities show value on UC Irvine and Kent State. We already have ten units on UC Irvine, but we also have Kent State at 200-to-1. So…ten more on the Anteaters. Here are our new scenarios, having already counted 20 units of SMU loss in our numbers below.
- If Chattanooga wins: +199.0 units
- If Kent State wins: +157.0 units
- If UC Irvine wins: +48.5 units
- If anybody else wins: –44.0 units
Pick: UC Irvine to win +350. 10.00 units to win 35.00.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –260.67 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –9% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 228 single-game markets plus one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
