Rough one last night. We were starting to feel so smart, too.
Miami at Texas A&M
We’re rolling with Movelor again here, and with our own doubts of the Texas A&M defense.
Pick: Miami +3 (–115). 13.49 units to win 11.73.
Tulane at Mississippi
Again, rolling with Movelor. Yes, Mississippi’s had distraction. But Tulane’s coach also left.
Pick: Mississippi –17 (–105). 12.32 units to win 11.73.
James Madison at Oregon
We’re rolling with Movelor and fading SP+ here, which we like. We don’t think SP+ has a great beat on the stratosphere, and Oregon’s in that stratosphere. (I think SP+ might be 0–12 all-time against closing spreads in the 12-team CFP.) We’d up the unit, but Movelor only barely favors Oregon to cover this number.
Pick: Oregon –21 (–105). 12.32 units to win 11.73.
Montana at Montana State
No consideration of SP+ here. Just following Movelor, with the hopes that the last meeting between the Griz and the Cats inaccurately swayed perceptions of what Montana can do.
Pick: Montana State –6 (–115). 13.49 units to win 11.73.
Illinois State at Villanova
And again, trusting Movelor. Lot of attention on Illinois State, but Villanova’s playing great too.
Pick: Villanova +1.5 (–110). 12.90 units to win 11.73.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –542.37 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,001 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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