The Guardians keep winning, and so do we. Let’s keep chipping away.
Milwaukee at St. Louis
Heat Index’s second choice remains the Brewers.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –125. 1.31 units to win 1.05. Gasser and Liberatore must start.
Philadelphia at Arizona
We often like the Phillies, but this is a good matchup for them. Ranger Suárez against Eduardo Rodriguez, and more for the Phils to play for than people emight realize.
Pick: Phialdelphia to win –123. 1.29 units to win 1.05. Suárez and Rodriguez must start.
Seattle at Houston
Heat Index’s first choice remains the Mariners. Let’s get a sweep.
Pick: Seattle to win –133. 1.39 units to win 1.05. Gilbert and Alexander must start.
Kansas City at NY Giants
We trust FPI. FPI trusts the Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City –6 (–115). 1.21 units to win 1.05.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix (F1)
Polesitters haven’t won at Baku for a while, but the leaders do generally stay around the lead. It’s a weird race, but that doesn’t mean it’s that easy to pass. With McLaren qualifying poorly and Sainz qualifying top-three, we’ll take a shot on Williams to grab a podium.
Pick: Carlos Sainz to finish top three +800. 0.07 units to win 0.56.
USA Today 301 (NASCAR)
When three of the four Penske and Effectively Penske drivers qualify in the top three spots, we have to imagine the other Penske will have a great car. Austin Cindric is good enough to have a good day with that.
Pick: Austin Cindric to finish top ten +175. 0.30 units to win 0.53.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –476.04 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 769 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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