Split last night, but profitable. We’ll take profitable.
North Dakota State at UC Davis
This is a combination of trusting kenpom and that moneyline uncertainty we talked about earlier (sparknotes: early in the season, uncertainty is higher, but moneylines are still calibrated similarly to late-season moneylines with the same spread). It’s easy to make too much of NDSU playing Oregon State close in Corvallis on Monday, but it’s easier to make too much of a comfortable win over a D-II school, which is what UC Davis did.
Pick: North Dakota State to win +115. 1.47 units to win 1.69.
NIU at Toledo
On the MACtion side, we like Toledo. Movelor’s got this spread up at 18, and while pace exists in college football and NIU’s played a lot of low-scoring games, it’s not a situation where we really see low-scoring teams tend to cover as underdogs. In fact, NIU’s 2–6 against Movelor’s spread so far this year. They’ve disappointed more often than not. Give us Toledo with something to play for.
Pick: Toledo –14.5 (–115). 3.90 units to win 3.39.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –469.42 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 878 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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