Today’s Best Bets: More FPI

We had the Patriots covering, but we didn’t expect that.

Monday Night Football and today’s MLB futures. Let’s get to ‘em.


World Series

FanGraphs still indicates this is a good price. We’re going to take a little more of it in case it continues to get shorter.

Pick: Los Angeles to win +225. 4.00 units to win 9.00.


Kansas City at Jacksonville

Nothing new here. We use FPI with 1.75 points worth of home-field advantage. For a season and a quarter, in primetime games it’s worked.

Pick: Kansas City –3.5 (+100). 5.15 units to win 5.15.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –426.00 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 822 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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