FPI got us through yesterday, ugly though it may have been. We’ll ride with it again today.
Buffalo at Jacksonville
San Francisco at Philadelphia
LA Chargers at New England
It’s all underdogs again today. The last two aren’t surprising—it tracks that in high-volume markets, the public would pull these games towards the favorites. The Bills are more surprising. You’d think that public trust in great quarterbacking in the playoffs would pull this the opposite direction. Maybe sportsbooks are putting more stock in home-field advantage than I am (I use 1.75 points, a very rough season-long average), which could be fair. But I do wonder if the books are outsmarting themselves a little bit with that one. The Bills aren’t bad. Neither are the Jaguars, but the Bills aren’t bad.
Pick: Buffalo +2 (–120). 5.90 units to win 4.92.
Pick: San Francisco +6 (–115). 5.66 units to win 4.92.
Pick: LA Chargers +3.5 (–110). 5.41 units to win 4.92.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –513.13 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,028 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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