Another loss last night, as we’ve hit a little bit of a skid on weeknight college football. We’re keeping the unit the same for now, but we’ll try to put a little more research into those instead of so blindly trusting Movelor.
No futures today. We haven’t updated our NHL model yet, and the only MLB value’s on the Mariners, where we already have plenty of upside. Go M’s.
Delaware at Jacksonville State
Movelor likes Jacksonville State and Sam Houston both outright tonight, by 2.1 and 1.7 points respectively. Each is a three-point underdog. But. Jacksonville State is one of only four FBS teams who’ve yet to cover a Movelor spread, with Movelor unaware of all that offseason turnover after Rich Rodriguez left for West Virginia. There’s a better chance Movelor’s overrating Jacksonville State than that it’s overrating almost anybody else in the country.
What about Sam Houston? The Bearkats have covered one Movelor spread, but it was…against Jacksonville State. They’ve yet to cover a Movelor spread against a team who’s covered a Movelor spread. Also, their rating has decreased more than Jacksonville State’s since preseason. That’s our other barometer of whether Movelor’s found level. If there’s been a lot of movement, we’re more skeptical. Sam Houston’s seen more total downward movement than any other FBS team.
So, we’re going with one of the favorites and betting against our system. Delaware’s overperformed Movelor’s expectations by more than UTEP, going 4–1 against Movelor’s spreads so far. The only time they failed to cover? Against Delaware State, one of seven Division I teams who’s undefeated against the Movelor spread. Just like Sam Houston hasn’t covered against a team who’s covered, Delaware hasn’t failed to cover against a team who’s failed to cover.
Eventually, Movelor finds level. But for tonight, we’ll hope it’s off by at least 5.1 points. I’m not seeing any major injuries. 5.1 points is well within a standard deviation. I think this is the move.
Pick: Delaware –3 (–105). 0.85 units to win 0.81.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –455.67 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 834 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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