A warning, to those who follow closely: We’re betting more today than we have allotted for daily bets, meaning we’re dipping into some of the units we’ve set aside for MLB futures. More on why when we get to IndyCar below.
Chicago (NL) at New York (AL)
As Cubs fans, we love Shōta Imanaga and love what the Cubs did yesterday. As FIP/xERA devotees, we are tied to what we think’s going to be opposing regression for Imanaga and for Will Warren, who’s been a lot better than his high-level numbers suggest.
Pick: New York to win –128. 9.42 units to win 7.36. Imanaga and Warren must start.
Toronto at Sacramento
The A’s are hard to kill off, but the Blue Jays aren’t exactly slumping. We don’t know how the ultimate getaway day will impact either team, but reason would suggest it’ll be easier for the Jays to keep their foot on the gas.
Pick: Toronto to win –120. 8.83 units to win 7.36. Berríos and Springs must start.
Farm to Finish 275 Powered by Sukup (IndyCar at Iowa)
This is the big one. We’ve long loved betting Chevrolets to win on ovals in IndyCar. It’s a niche market with a dominant success rate over the last few years. Adding to today’s appeal, we got a lot of data yesterday, in IndyCar’s first leg of its Iowa doubleheader weekend. Seven of the first eight cars were Chevrolets, and while Kyle Kirkwood (Honda) crashed out, Nolan Siegel and a couple others who qualified ahead of Kirkwood also DNF’d and were driving Chevrolets.
Based on all of this, we’re putting our estimate at a 90% probability a Chevrolet wins today. That pushes our Kelly criterion to 70% of our Daily Bets fund. This is large, but we don’t get opportunities like this very often. If our Daily Bets do end up below even after today, we can figure out a way to compromise between them and MLB futures.
Pick: Chevrolet to win –205. 34.19 units to win 16.68.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 (NASCAR Cup Series at Sonoma)
This is smaller, but Kyle Larson’s won two of the last four races at Sonoma, which is two of the four he’s run there for Hendrick Motorsports. We like him to finish in the top five at close to a 50% likelihood.
Pick: Kyle Larson to finish top five +115. 2.13 units to win 2.45.
Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final
And overseas, we’re probably biased here (whether Sinner meant to cheat or not, his “punishment” was ridiculously small), but we don’t see how you can view Alcaraz as anything worse than a tossup against even the second-best player in the world.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win +105. 2.34 units to win 2.46.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –430.94 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 483 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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