Apologies for yet another unannounced absence. The plan is to get back to daily from here, with an NFL futures catchup later this week. We’re going to let the college football futures portfolio continue to ride, at least for tonight.
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt
Arizona State vs. Duke
Michigan vs. Texas
Nebraska vs. Utah
These are straightforward. We take bowl game moneyline underdogs, on the premise that even if the spreads are pretty good, the moneylines are closer to 50/50 than they’d be for the same spreads in the regular season because uncertainty’s so high.
Pick: Iowa to win +140. 9.68 units to win 13.55.
Pick: Arizona State to win +155. 8.74 units to win 13.55.
Pick: Michigan to win +192. 7.06 units to win 13.56.
Pick: Nebraska to win +425. 3.19 units to win 13.56.
Ohio State vs. Miami
This is also straightforward (we’re trusting Movelor), but to be clear: We think Ohio State will win. We just see this as a little bit of a tricky line, since Ohio State’s a lot better but isn’t a huge blowout team, and when Miami’s not messing around like they often do, they’re close to top-five in quality.
Pick: Miami +9.5 (–105). 14.23 units to win 13.55.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –505.99 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,011 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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