Nice little win by Illinois last night, but big hit to lose the Nebraska Elite Eight future in that fashion. Thought we were going to get 30 units there. Instead, we lost five.
Another future today, plus a pick tonight.
NCAA Tournament
The numbers still check out here, mostly because it appears St. John’s and UConn are overvalued. Maybe that’s coaching, and the market’s going to be proven correct, but I’d at least take Tom Izzo as being on par with Pitino and Hurley, and while I have my Jon Scheyer questions, he doesn’t seem to be a liability at all.
Our interests tonight are Duke, Michigan State, and then Alabama but we’re not holding our breath. Two out of three would be splendid.
Pick: Duke to make Final Four –115. 10.00 units to win 8.70.
UConn vs. Michigan State
The Big Ten’s been overperforming expectations across the board, and there was already plenty of reason to doubt UConn. Give us Sparty.
Pick: Michigan State +2 (–114). 3.77 units to win 3.31.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –558.44 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,109 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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