Nothing big yesterday, but our reverse jinx on the Brewers did work. Apologies for those of you who had to be dragged along in that effort. We were getting desperate.
Today…
Houston at Detroit
We’ve bet on the Astros a lot this summer. We’ve gotten burned by the Astros a lot too. But Framber Valdez keeps pitching like the real deal, and there’s some urgency here to avoid the sweep, especially with the Mariners more likely than not to get swept themselves over in Philadelphia. This is a good opportunity for Houston, which helps make it a good one for us.
Pick: Houston to win –107. 0.41 units to win 0.38. Valdez and Morton must start.
Cleveland at Arizona
We’re going back to the Guardians tonight. Usually, we like to stay away from debutants, but when Cleveland debuts a starting pitcher who’s a top-100 prospect, it’s easier to take the leap.
Pick: Cleveland to win –103. 0.39 units to win 0.38. Messick and Pfaadt must start.
Sacramento at Minnesota
Heat Index’s first choice today is the A’s, whose combined wRC+ and FIP– is still second-best in the game over the last six-plus series.
Pick: Sacramento to win +105. 0.25 units to win 0.26. Ginn and Ober must start.
Los Angeles at Colorado
Its second choice is the Dodgers, who check in at fourth in Heat Index. (The Rockies are 28th, the Twins are 27th. Brewers 1st, Nats last.) We don’t like betting a price this expensive, especially after Heat Index burned us on Monday with LA. But we behold ourselves to our processes around here, for better and worse.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –295. 0.77 units to win 0.26. Ohtani and Gordon must start.
World Series
On the futures front, the Tigers picked up another half-game in the AL Central last night, keeping them the safest team in the regular season picture. Meanwhile, the Yankees moved ahead of the Red Sox. It happened late at night, and not all books updated their prices before today.
Pick: Detroit to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1200. 2.00 units to win 24.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –494.75 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 612 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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