We’re doing our last regular season round of NFL futures today, and since we missed last week, we’re doing double the units. One note here: We might do another future tomorrow. Depending on the outcomes today, we might decide to hedge on our AFC North futures situation. We have decent upside on the 49ers and decent downside on the Seahawks. (Small division upside on the Panthers, but the Bucs also leave us in a good place.)
We’ll also have a single-game pick. No college basketball today. We’ll try to get back into that this week.
Super Bowl
More of what our portfolio’s already heavy on here. Just not seeing the value question shift much.
Pick: Denver to win +840. 8.00 units to win 67.20.
Pick: Green Bay to win +2300. 4.00 units to win 92.00.
Pick: LA Chargers to win +2800. 4.00 units to win 112.00.
AFC
Similar story.
Pick: LA Chargers to win +1250. 4.00 units to win 50.00.
NFC
Similar story. We use FPI for these, and we think it has enough data post-Parsons.
Pick: Green Bay to win +1000. 4.00 units to win 40.00.
Seattle at San Francisco
I was concerned by the defense last week too. But, the offense looked great, and if experience in these types of situations matters, the Niners should get an advantage from that. It’s still hard to fully believe in the Seahawks. (Also, what happened to home-field advantage?)
Pick: San Francisco +2.5 (–105). 3.09 units to win 2.94.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –482.51 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,023 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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