Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,752 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: MLB futures, MLB moneylines, and a single-game NFL bet.
Here’s the history on each and how we approach them:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 163–139–4 so far this year, down 7.77 units. About a month ago, we pivoted to a different set of systems. We’re 51–37–1 since the pivot, up 5.03 units. The biggest driver of that success has been Heat Index, our pet metric which gauges the gap between how hot different teams are. Together, Heat Index’s top two choices are 35–13–1 and up 11.98 units. They’ve plateaued lately, though, which has us considering pivoting off of at least one of them depending how today’s plays turn out.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays until sometime later this month when the scenarios become more specific.
Single-game NFL bets: We published these for the first time last year, and they went terribly. So far this year, we’re 2–1, up 0.83 units.
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia
Over the last three weeks, the Rays are hitting 21% worse and pitching 17% worse than the season-long league-average. That’s the worst combination of those numbers in the league. The Phillies haven’t been on fire, but the theory behind Heat Index says this should be a game that this time of year, Philadelphia wins.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –216. Low confidence. (Sulser and Sánchez must start.)
Cincinnati @ Atlanta
This one’s more moderate. The Reds are only the fifth-coldest team while Atlanta’s only the ninth-hottest. With today’s limited slate, though, those two have the second-biggest gap.
Pick: Atlanta to win –147. Low confidence. (Martinez and Morton must start.)
World Series
We know the Yankees have their problems. For one thing, they don’t seem to realize Nestor Cortes is one of their best five starting pitchers. But the market keeps underrating their chance to win the AL East, even if they insist on showing up their most productive arm this season.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +600. Medium confidence.
NLCS
On the NL side, the Padres only enjoy a one-game lead over seventh place in the loss column. San Diego does, however, have three advantages: First, they lead by three games in the win column, and while the loss column makes more sense to watch, the win column is comparably meaningful. Second, they have a little buffer. Three separate teams would have to pass them for the Pads to actually miss the playoffs, and the Braves and Mets still play each other two more times. Third, the Padres hold at least one tiebreaker, and possibly two. While they lost the season series to the Mets, they won it over Atlanta, and they and Arizona are tied with three games left to play. They should make the field, and once there, they should be dangerous.
Pick: San Diego to win +750. Medium confidence.
NY Jets @ San Francisco
The Jets do have a good defense, and Aaron Rodgers should at least make their offense respectable. But this line is pretty close for a game in San Francisco, which makes me wonder whether the market’s leaning a little towards Rodgers’s NorCal mystique or maybe getting sick of one of the best teams in the NFL failing to win the Super Bowl.
Pick: San Francisco –4 (–115). Low confidence.
