Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,402 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks against the spread.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context: We began the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio (20 per week, 4 per weekday), plus an extra 520 in reserve for hedges.
AL East
The Rays have been the more visible Yankees bogeyman, but they have a tougher route the rest of the way, creating value on the Blue Jays. We’ll gladly put this in our pocket, especially in light of our hedge below.
Pick: Toronto to win +1400. Medium confidence.
World Series
Can the Padres beat the Dodgers? It sure doesn’t feel that way, but the data just doesn’t back that thinking up. Dan Szymborski covered this at FanGraphs last week. Trust the numbers. The Padres are a solid team.
Pick: San Diego to win +2800. Medium confidence.
AL East (Hedge)
Warning: This isn’t good value, it just makes sense for our portfolio.
A few weeks ago, we took the Rays at 250-to-1 to win the East. We aren’t cashing that in yet, but with 520 units available for hedging, we’re going to tap into both those and the value the Rays have created. The hedging units were originally intended for October, but they’ll either come back for October or our primary bankroll will be large enough that it won’t matter, as this locks our division side back into profitability while leaving upside on all of the Blue Jays, Mets, Guardians, and Twins, with massive upside on the Rays, still. We may be hedging more as the weeks go on.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -750. Medium confidence. x29
