Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,111 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks.
One MLB moneyline today, two MLB futures, one pick for tonight’s college football game. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 89–61–4, we’re up 19.79 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –110). We would love to hit 100 wins by the end of next week.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 77.10 units, or 10.3%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 4–7, and 4–5 on games involving at least one FBS team.
Boston @ Tampa Bay
This doesn’t quite fit our parameters, with the impact of Tampa Bay’s weekend bullpen usage outweighing that of Boston’s by a hair. Still, it’s the best option on today’s board, with Brayan Bello’s FIP and xERA worse than his ERA, the Red Sox still struggling even if they were able to beat the Royals twice, and Aaron Civale yet to walk three batters since joining the Rays a month ago. The Rays are a weird team to value in futures markets because it’s unclear whether or not Wander Franco will return, but they’re a pretty straightforward team day to day. Today, they’ll probably win.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –115. Low confidence. (Bello and Civale must start.)
World Series
We’re doubling up on Atlanta today, trying to stash as much as we can on these guys while the value’s positive. It’s possible the odds won’t shorten any more until the NLDS starts, but it’s hard to see them lengthening, and the more upside we have on the favorites, the more flexibility we have everywhere else.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
Pick: Atlanta to win +300. Medium confidence.
Clemson @ Duke
Clemson might be better on offense this year, with the hope in South Carolina being that offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, hired away from TCU, can make a whole lot out of sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik. Meanwhile, Duke got a lot better last year and returns quarterback Riley Leonard.
What we’re guessing is happening here is an overvaluation of each of these offenses. While Leonard had a strong season in 2022, Duke’s success was about equally based on its offensive and defensive performance. While Clemson’s offense is what needs to improve, its defense should still be the program’s strength, as it’s been since Trevor Lawrence graduated. This total has dropped since opening, probably in response to the narrative about the clock rules impacting scoring (the overall points per game haven’t dropped since last year, but that doesn’t mean the rules aren’t lessening scoring, because the overall number doesn’t account for matchups). I’m still not sure it’s low enough.
In college football, we like to bet against narratives. We’re going to bet against the offense narratives here, with a little encouragement from the bonus scenario where Clemson overpowers Duke and the Blue Devils hardly score tonight. We don’t expect that, but we do think a blowout favors the under this time.
Pick: Under 54.5 (–110). Low confidence.
