Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,912 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +1% across 2,397 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets: MLB moneylines, MLB futures, single-game NFL. Here’s the context on each:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 171–152–4 so far this year, down 11.38 units. It’s been a bad showing, and we are grateful it ends today.
MLB futures: In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We place two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season. Now that division futures have begun paying out, we’re doing it on weekends as well. These are still tracking well—of the expected twelve playoff teams, three would be bad World Series winners for our portfolio, four would be great, and the other five would be in between—but there’s a long way to go.
Single-game NFL bets: We published these for the first time last year, and they went terribly. So far this year, though, we’re 7–5 and up 1.47 units.
Game 1: New York (NL) @ Atlanta
They’re not listing odds for Game 2, which is smart. The Game 2 winner will very, very likely be the Game 1 loser. Both teams make the playoff at 1–1, and while the Braves are locked into the 5-seed if they make it at all, the 6-seed’s advantages (less travel, easier path) mean the Mets have a few active incentives to lose should they win Game 1. (Although eliminating the Braves would marginally help the Mets, saving pitching is the primary purpose of Game 2 for both teams.)
We’ll take the Mets under our prevailing strategy the last two weeks of betting against the perceived hottest team in action. Atlanta’s coming off a better stretch. That might lead to them being overvalued.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +130. Low confidence. (Megill and Schwellenbach must start.)
ALCS
We haven’t looked at all of the postseason markets yet—we’ll check more tomorrow, especially Wild Card Series prices. For now, we’re sticking with the markets we bet during the regular season—divisions, pennants, and the World Series. In one of those—this ALCS market—we have a positive-EV opportunity to get the Astros back to being a profitable scenario. All three of them, the Yankees, and the Guardians are very low-upside for us as pennant winners, but now, none of them is unprofitable.
Pick: Houston to win +370. Medium confidence.
NLCS
In the NL, we like this price on the Braves. They might show up tired to San Diego, but they’ve complained so much about having too much rest the last few years that it’s an opportunity to prove a point. Also: If Chris Sale does pitch Game 2 today, that could pay off by making him available to start Game 1 of the NLDS.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1000. Medium confidence.
Seattle @ Detroit
Our Sunday struggles continued yesterday, but we’re looking for more Monday Night Football success. (I know this is probably all random.) We’ll keep trusting FPI, taking this one rather than the Dolphins game because while Frank Ragnow’s important, we think his injury introduces less variance than the quarterback situations in Nashville and Miami.
Pick: Detroit –4 (–110). Low confidence.
