Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 492 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
New York (NL) @ Washington
Since July began, no National League team has scored more runs than the Nationals. Third baseman Anthony Rendon is the biggest reason why.
Rendon is unlikely to win the MVP. He’s 2.3 bWAR behind Cody Bellinger, and he trails in fWAR as well (though only by 0.6). But the case can be made that no player has been more important to his team’s World Series chances than the man at the hot corner in our nation’s capital.
Rendon’s 163 wRC+ is fourth in the MLB among qualified hitters, trailing only Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Bellinger. He only has 32 home runs, but he leads the race for the NL batting title and he’s only three RBI’s behind Freddie Freeman in the other Triple Crown category. And while his defense doesn’t turn heads, only eight qualifying third baseman have accumulated more of FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above Average than Rendon.
With Max Scherzer returning to full strength, the Nationals are poised to host a wild card game in which they figure to be at least 60% favorites. From there, the Dodgers likely await. So while Cody Bellinger will probably win the NL MVP, Anthony Rendon might have the opportunity to make that a consolation prize.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110). Low confidence.
San Diego @ Arizona
Mike Leake’s durability and consistency are remarkable. He’s thrown more than 160 innings in each of his full major league seasons (he didn’t pitch in September of his rookie year). He’s been worth one or more fWAR in each of those years. He’s averaged a 4.09 ERA over his career on the back of a 4.22 FIP, numbers pretty much any rotation would take. And he’s done it, for the most part, throwing 92 mph or softer.
Still, time and the league seem to be catching up to Leake. He’s got a 5.11 FIP so far this year, third-worst among qualified starters. He’s allowing home runs at a career-high rate. And his ERA, which currently sits at 4.67, is only a few points away from being the worst of his career as well.
At 31, Leake probably has a number of years left in the tank. But it’s looking more and more like those years will be spent as this year has been—bouncing around filling holes in rotations, away from the thick of any playoff race.
Pick: San Diego to win (+127). Low confidence.
