Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,558 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.2% isn’t much, but it’s positive, and you can do things with positive.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just futures today, and the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus.
NLCS
Atlanta probably has the East locked up, leading Philadelphia by three in the loss column with likely just six games remaining (Atlanta may have to play Colorado on Monday in a makeup game, but that’s only if the division’s still up in the air). We could bet on them to hold on, but the eROI’s higher here, so we’ll take the additional leverage rather than the shorter-term payout.
Pick: Atlanta to win +750. Low confidence.
NL West
Here, we want the shorter-term payout, because we’re still not believers in the Giants’ ability to win the pennant. The market likes them, the numbers don’t, and that’s even if you do things like flipping FanGraphs’s methodology to be based solely upon season-to-date stats, which is suspect in the first place. Anyway, in an attempt to 1) extract some value from the Giants and 2) get a little boost heading into the Wild Card Games, we’ll make this just our 15th high-confidence pick ever. So far, we’re 14-0 on these, so in that sense, the pressure’s on.
Pick: San Francisco to win -400. High confidence.
