Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,168 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,631 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, two MLB futures, one NFL pick. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 95–68–5, we’re up 18.67 units, we’re up 11% (the average line on our winners has been –110).
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 106.37 units, or 14.2%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 1–6–2, we’re down 5.13 units, we’re down 57%. That is, amazingly, a major step up from where we stood entering yesterday.
Minnesota @ Cincinnati
We aren’t sure when the Twins will start resting guys, with their division clinch likely happening later this week. We do, though, think they have a fresh enough bullpen such that even if Joe Ryan only goes four innings, they’ll be well-equipped. Connor Phillips has had a very bad first two starts on the aggregate. We expect better from him, but the chance of a blowup is high, and if the Reds far behind, they might want to go into mop-up mode and save some pitching for their better chances at wins the rest of the series.
Pick: Minnesota to win –144. Low confidence. (Ryan and Phillips must start.)
ALCS
There are a few options here, but we’re going with these two because in addition to offering positive value, they’re each on a team that’s very likely to make the playoffs, making that value pretty secure. It will change—each team’s seeding and opponent matters—but it’s not as risky as, say, that of the Blue Jays. Also? This keeps our number of profitable paths at its maximum number. We can’t say that right now of hypothetical bets in a few other markets.
Pick: Houston to win +275. Medium confidence.
Pick: Minnesota to win +1100. Medium confidence.
New Orleans @ Carolina
Doing the simple thing was nearly successful for us yesterday, until Sean McVay managed that last-second field goal to push Niners/Rams. We’ll try it again today. We don’t know a whole lot, but we have a good idea the Panthers are bad, and you could make a case for some Saints upside if Derek Carr turns out to be a good fit there after what was at times a pretty rough situation for him with the Raiders over the years.
Pick: New Orleans –3 (–119). Low confidence.
