Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,407 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is often used in making college football picks against the spread. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks.
Just MLB futures today. For unit context: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures fund (20 units per week, 4 units per weekday) and an additional 520 in reserve for potential hedging.
ALCS
We’re seeing similar value this week to what we saw last week: The Blue Jays in the AL, the Padres in the NL. We’re still hitting it, pumping up the number of scenarios which could drive us back to all-time profitability while also increasing our leverage for any hedging we wish to engage in down the line.
Pick: Toronto to win +800. Medium confidence.
NLCS
One advantage of finishing behind the Phillies, if the Padres do thread that needle, is getting to go to St. Louis rather than New York or Atlanta for the Wild Card Series. Another is avoiding Los Angeles in a potential NLDS. You’d prefer to comfortably make the playoffs if you’re the Padres, but there are upsides to the Phillies getting hot again.
Pick: San Diego to win +1400. Medium confidence.
NL East
We’re taking 40 units here from the hedging portion of our fund and spending them on a little arbitrage opportunity between the books from which we get our odds for these. It isn’t much—we get less than a unit if the Mets hold on, and less than two if Atlanta pulls it off—but we aren’t going to use the 40 units for anything much better before this cashes out, so it’s a good spot to park the funds.
Pick: New York (NL) to win -225. Medium confidence. x14
Pick: Atlanta to win +240. Medium confidence. x6
