Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 572 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
ALDS Game Three: Houston @ Tampa Bay
If today is the last start of Charlie Morton’s season, it will have been quite the season. Morton’s going to turn 36 in November. That’s not exactly the prime of a pitcher’s career. Yet the journeyman posted career-bests in the regular season in innings pitched (194.2), ERA (3.05), FIP (2.81), K-rate (30.4%), and fWAR (6.1). He won the wild card game. And if today’s a win, he’ll have pushed off his most recent employer’s division series celebration at least one more day.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win (+118). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 8 (-110). Low confidence.
