Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,377 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,754 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, but mostly futures.
Today’s MLB futures, plus a Monday Night Football pick. Here’s the context on each market.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on those 750 units is 100.89 units, or 13.5%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 7–12–5; we’re down 5.86 units; and we’re down 24%.
ALCS (Hedge)
We’re still not very confident in Max Scherzer’s health. We’re still wary of him pushing himself too far. Given his velocity was around his season average, though, and given he was one home run away from a great outing by FIP, it’s possible the market has swung too far on him. In other words, we’re not placing this because of the value, but there could be some value on the Rangers tonight. It’s a pretty low-value game.
What we do like is what this does for our portfolio. In total, the Astros are still our preferred horse (table of outcomes coming in a minute), but this helps minimize our downside and maximize our upside at the same time, keeping our best-case net profit similar while giving us a lot better leverage in a hypothetical Phillies–Rangers matchup next round.
32 units on the Rangers to win tonight. Customary single-game issue applies. There is a path to a push, which we hate but accept.
Pick: Texas to win +117. Medium confidence. x16 (Scherzer and Javier must start.)
World Series
The value is still too good to pass up here. For what might be the last time all season, give us the Diamondbacks. Four units.
Here’s where this and the above leave our World Series scenarios, as current bets stand (we’re up 8.86 units on completed futures so far):
| Winner | Loser | Net |
| Arizona | Texas | 601.39 |
| Arizona | Houston | 569.26 |
| Philadelphia | Texas | 240.09 |
| Philadelphia | Houston | 207.96 |
| Houston | Arizona | 2.86 |
| Houston | Philadelphia | -68.04 |
| Texas | Arizona | -94.61 |
| Texas | Philadelphia | -165.51 |
Pick: Arizona to win +1500. Medium confidence. x2
San Francisco @ Minnesota
Justin Jefferson is a great football player and makes the Vikings offense a lot better. In what should be a game of catchup, though, we think his value is being overstated by the market, as are Kirk Cousins’s tendencies in primetime games, as are the Niners’ struggles last week against the Browns. We like the 49ers to get right, but we’re more concerned that the Vikings will keep up than we are that the Niners will hold them to a single-digit score. So, we land on the over.
Pick: Over 44 (–105). Low confidence.
