Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,639 published picks, not including pending futures. 0.0% isn’t amazing, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have a future again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Houston @ Boston
These bullpens really aren’t great, and while Eduardo Rodriguez is probably undervalued, the wind’s also headed towards the right field foul pole tonight, which might mean more bopping. It’s tempting to overthink the total, but we don’t appear to be at that point yet.
Pick: Boston to win -115. Low confidence.
Pick: Over 9 (-125). Low confidence.
World Series: Exact Matchup
We continue to hedge against our Boston and Atlanta-heavy futures portfolio. Double-unit again, for that sake. We could wrap this up today, but we’re on a good pace for getting it wrapped up eventually, and if we can avoid over-hedging, we’d like to avoid it. That said, if the Red Sox win tonight we may lock ourselves into profitability tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +355. Low confidence.
Pick: Houston vs. Los Angeles +355. Low confidence.
