Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,951 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,411 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today are MLB futures and single-game NFL. Here’s the context on each:
MLB futures – In four of the five years we’ve done these, we’ve profited, twice by large margins. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio. We placed two medium confidence bets most weekdays throughout the regular season, as usual, then pivoted to placing a more variable number throughout the playoffs, as usual. We’re currently big fans of the Guardians and Mets, and we do not want the Dodgers to win it all.
Single-game NFL bets – We published these for the first time last year, and they went terribly. So far this year, though, we’re 11–7 and up 3.25 units.
ALCS
We were hoping for more NLCS value on the Dodgers, but ZiPS didn’t show that at current prices, even if FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds did. (FanGraphs’s ZiPS projections consider starting pitching matchups.) We’re not ready to place any possibly negative-value bets as hedges just yet. Instead, we’ll go with the best value on the board today, which is the Guardians to take down the Yankees and win the American League pennant. Here’s where it leaves our portfolio heading into the day of baseball:
| ALCS | NLCS | World Series | Final Net |
| CLE | NYM | CLE | 286.20 |
| CLE | LAD | CLE | 267.87 |
| CLE | NYM | NYM | 261.20 |
| NYY | NYM | NYM | 199.40 |
| NYY | NYM | NYY | -71.20 |
| NYY | LAD | NYY | -89.53 |
| CLE | LAD | LAD | -235.13 |
| NYY | LAD | LAD | -296.93 |
Pick: Cleveland to win +170. Medium confidence.
Buffalo @ NY Jets
We take FPI at face value around here. That’s how we’ve approached games this year. We’ve wiggled a little with home-field advantage, but that isn’t a factor in this one. FPI implies a 2.9-point neutral field line, and we know home field is worth more than 1.4 points, on average. I hate it too, but I’ve hated a lot of these. That might be part of the optimal approach.
Pick: NY Jets +1.5 (–110). Low confidence.
