Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been neutral, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,618 published picks, not including pending futures. 0% isn’t positive, but it’s not negative, and we do project a positive return from our outstanding futures. Make of that what you will.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We have futures again today, for which the odds come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Milwaukee @ Atlanta
Eight’s a convenient number here because it’s even, and baseball’s low scoring enough that even numbers are less common due to the possibility of extra innings. There are questions about Ian Anderson, and Freddy Peralta’s been great but it’s been a long, long year.
Pick: Over 8 (-120). Low confidence.
Tampa Bay @ Boston
These bullpens are in scraps after last night, and the last time we saw Eduardo Rodriguez he was leaving Game 1 early. It’s been a chaotic Games 2 and 3. Expect that to continue.
Pick: Over 9.5 (+100). Low confidence.
San Francisco @ Los Angeles
The Giants need Wood to keep this close. It’s not a situation where they can’t win if the over hits, but there should be some correlation here.
Pick: San Francisco to win, under 7.5 (+413). Low confidence.
ALCS
The second one here—Tampa Bay—is pure portfolio maintenance. Terrible odds, but we have hardly anything on Tampa Bay and if they come back, this might be the lowest we could ever get them.
The first one—Boston—is partially portfolio maintenance. The odds are good, not great. We’d take another bet (them to win the World Series, specifically) if it was the only bet we were placing. But this keeps the Dodgers-over-Red-Sox route comfortably positive, and that helps us.
Pick: Boston to win +190. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +600. Low confidence.
