Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,908 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). We are profitable all-time, but only narrowly.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
College basketball begins, and we’ve got a Monday Night Football play alongside it. What a day.
We don’t have any data on this season’s college basketball picks yet (of course), but in previous years, our average ROI per unit in November and December has been 3%.
On single-game NFL picks this year, we’re 11–14–5; we’re down 4.28 units; and we’re down 14%. For better or worse, the picks have been doing better lately.
UMBC @ Louisville
We do not love this Louisville team. We need to make that clear. There is a chance there is something seriously, seriously wrong again with this group. What I would guess, though, is that there isn’t a lot of gradient within that possibility. Either the team is melting down or it’s playing to where its kenpom number (12 in this game) would indicate. That is a guess, but we think it might be one worth making. I know Louisville lost to a non-Division I opponent in an exhibition, like last year, when there definitely was a meltdown. But last year’s meltdown should be priced in. We think the chance they’re in active combustion right now is below 50%, and that makes us trust kenpom on this game.
Pick: Louisville –8 (–110). Low confidence.
USC Upstate @ South Carolina
South Carolina seems widely slept on. They had a terrible season last year, but they had their moments, and they were so young. This year’s team is more experienced, returns Meechie Johnson, and appears to be healthy tonight. We’ll take the Gamecocks to win an in-state game in Columbia.
Pick: South Carolina –13 (–110). Low confidence.
LA Chargers @ NY Jets
We like betting on teams with better records as underdogs, and we like betting on good defensive teams when the number’s 3.5 or 4. This fits those bills.
Pick: NY Jets +3.5 (–125). Low confidence.
