Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,217 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.4% might not be great, it’s positive over a big sample size. And that’s not nothing.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Bowling Green @ Appalachian State
As has been said in this space ad nauseum, Bowling Green’s success in the MAC last year was built upon results in one-possession games that will be difficult to reproduce.
Also, they weren’t even that successful.
Pick: Appalachian State to win +125. Low confidence.
Chattanooga @ Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Tech isn’t much. But it’s unclear if Chattanooga is much themselves. The Mocs surged last year, even in a strong SoCon, but their two most productive offensive players are gone, and even last year’s team suffered some unsightly losses now and then. The best guess we have—i.e., KenPom, says this spread’s too wide. We’ll believe it.
Pick: Tennessee Tech +6 (-110). Low confidence.
Stanford vs. Alabama
The market’s evidently high on Alabama, perhaps putting some weight behind Nate Oats’s top-10-ish recruiting class. Stanford, though, was the better team last year, brings back much of what was good, and adds Ziaire Williams, a more touted prospect than Josh Primo—Oats’s best chip. Yes, Tyrell Terry’s gone, but this is a team with a comparable trajectory to Alabama, and it started from a better place. The game’s nearly a tossup. But if it leans one way, it’s toward the Cardinal.
Pick: Stanford to win +130. Low confidence.
Texas Southern @ Wyoming
The last time we saw Wyoming, they were turning the Mountain West tournament on its head and a guy wearing a barrel was the most visible piece of the occasion.
Now, they try to build a real full season.
Jeff Linder had a strong four years at Northern Colorado, turning the Bears into a perennial top-of-the-league team in the Big Sky. But beyond the guy in the barrel (editor’s note: his name’s Cowboy Ken, and please give him the respect he deserves), he doesn’t have a ton to work with yet at Wyoming. Texas Southern, meanwhile, is an experienced team that’s used to playing better opponents on the road. Five days ago, they gave Washington State a scare in the Palouse. Wyoming’s better, to be sure, but not this much better.
Pick: Texas Southern +8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
