Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,393 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
A quick programming note: Apologies for not getting last night’s World Cup future up. We’ll double up tonight, but that will actually be tomorrow morning, because the shift to later kickoffs means we’ll have time to do it before games start, rather than before bed. So, farewell for now to Tonight’s Best Bet. It may return come tennis season.
Now, basketball:
Troy @ Arkansas
Troy’s one of those teams with a good record and a bad schedule, and between that and markets remaining oddly low on the Hogs, that’s creating opportunity tonight in Fayetteville.
Pick: Arkansas -16 (-110). Low confidence.
Sam Houston State @ Nevada
College of Charleston is the low-major darling, starting the year hot and nearly cracking this week’s AP Poll top 25. Sam Houston State, though, is off to a better start. Their median opponent isn’t as good, but road wins over Oklahoma and Utah are more impressive than Charleston beating Virginia Tech at home, and the Bearkats have been punishing their mid-major/low-major competition. Nevada’s played well and could get Daniel Foster and KJ Hymes back tonight, but Sam Houston State’s the better team, making this good value even as a road game.
Pick: Sam Houston State +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
