Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,973 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got more college basketball, and we try again at the NFL after resuming our pushes. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 14–9. We’re up 3.75 units and we’re up 16%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 14–19–7. We’re down 6.48 units and we’re down 16%.
Utah @ Saint Mary’s
This isn’t purely another free throw bet—kenpom has Utah much closer to even money here—but Aidan Mahaney, who should have the ball in his hands the most down the stretch, is oddly a slightly below-average free throw shooter over his career, which is now up to 79 attempts. And by below-average, we mean below the Division I average. That means he’s even further below the average for point guards.
This could help us. Let’s call it half free throws, half blind kenpom trust.
Pick: Utah +4.5 (–115). Low confidence.
Chicago @ Minnesota
The Vikings should not be as good right now as they’ve played with Josh Dobbs, and Justin Jefferson being out again doesn’t help that. They should still be the better team than the Bears, though, whose performance against the Lions looks a little more Lions-driven with a week of hindsight.
Pick: Minnesota –3 (–110). Low confidence.
