Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,835 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 1.4% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Kent State vs. James Madison
We haven’t seen much of Kent State yet, but that probably isn’t shaping this. What’s probably shaping this is the combination of James Madison’s 4-0 record and the fact their last win came over George Mason, who beat Maryland. Making too much of individual results is dangerous, as those who invested in George Mason to beat James Madison learned.
Pick: Kent State to win +100. Low confidence.
Ohio State vs. Seton Hall
Again, single results aren’t all that significant. Seton Hall beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, but can they play like that every night? Ohio State’s missing Justice Sueing, but he’s played so little this year that it’s factored into most algorithms by now. Definitely a bad start for the Buckeyes, but they’re good enough to be the favorite here.
Pick: Ohio State to win +115. Low confidence.
Nevada vs. South Dakota State
This is being played in Sioux Falls, so something of a road game for Nevada, who’s plummeted through ratings systems so far. For how bad it’s been, though, they do still outrank South Dakota State in at least KenPom, meaning this should be closer to a tossup given the location.
Pick: Nevada to win +120. Low confidence.
George Mason vs. Washington
Finally, Washington, who’s been bad out of the gate but is benefiting from what we perceive to be an overvaluation of George Mason. They beat Maryland, yes. But we’ve adjusted for that.
Pick: Washington to win +155. Low confidence.
