Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,373 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Just our college basketball here—we’ll have today’s World Cup future up sometime this evening.
Abilene Christian vs. Wright State
Abilene Christian’s coach from that 2021 win over Texas is at UTEP now, but expectations are back up on the Wildcats. They’re a WAC contender, and with Wright State probably down this year (even with that win over Louisville), ACU’s expected to be the better team. And by enough.
Pick: Abilene Christian -2 (-110). Low confidence.
Houston Christian @ Rice
Houston Christian is bad. There’s no getting around that. The question is how bad Houston Christian is, and with that, our thought process tends to be that KenPom is quick to find its level. The Huskies are one of Division I’s worst squads, but Rice also recently lost to MTSU by 35. We think it’ll be in the single digits tonight.
Pick: Houston Christian +11.5 (-105). Low confidence.
