Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,955 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
There’s Monday Night Football, and there is so much college basketball. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 9–7. We’re up 1.12 units and we’re up 7%. We’ve won eight of our last eleven.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 13–17–6. We’re down 5.46 units and we’re down 15%.
Wisconsin vs. Virginia
Maybe Virginia’s due to come back to earth, but they’re playing like the best version of Virginia since 2019’s. Wisconsin, meanwhile, played fine against Tennessee and looked brutal against Providence. With some weirdness going on involving Connor Essegian, too, it’s hard to bet against Virginia. That makes it easy to bet on Virginia.
Pick: Virginia –2.5 (–115). Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ Kansas City
We’re trying caring a lot about season-to-date record, something that worked well for us in tests last December. With the Eagles a game up on the Chiefs in the standings, that would imply we should take Philadelphia here, having adjusted for home-field advantage.
Pick: Philadelphia +2.5 (–102). Low confidence.
