Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 660 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 12% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Bryant @ Niagara
If you compare teams solely by how they fared against Rutgers, this pick will shock you (should we use this as a headline?).
You probably don’t compare teams that way, though.
Niagara, with Greg Paulus (yes, that Greg Paulus) the newly named full-time head coach following Patrick Beilein’s (yes, same Beilein family—John’s son) unexpected resignation a few weeks ago, lost to Rutgers 86-39 last Sunday.
Bryant lost to Rutgers only 73-71 a few days before that.
But while Bryant is the better team, certainly played better against Rutgers, and has underwent less tumult lately, there’s uncertainty around the health of SaBastian Townes and Juan Cardenas, both of whom played significant minutes last season. Meanwhile, Niagara may have found some stability, having kept it close with Stephen F. Austin for a half in Nacogdoches before the Lumberjacks, as was expected, pulled away.
4.5 is a significant margin for a team of Bryant’s stature on the road to cover. If you’re up for it, take the Purple Eagles.
Pick: Niagara +4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
SMU @ Evansville
Evansville beat Kentucky, and as one could have guessed, the hype grew.
This is perfectly reasonable. Evansville went into Lexington and won despite only shooting 30% on three’s, turning in more turnovers than assists, and suffering 80% shooting from Kentucky at the free throw line. In other words, it was an upset that, on paper, doesn’t read like a colossal fluke reliant on some unsustainable statistical performance (i.e., 70% shooting from three, or an opponent missing 25 free throws). We don’t know how indicative this is of Evansville’s true ability, but we have highly sophisticated systems designed to answer questions just like that one.
Those systems point to SMU being the better team tonight by a slim margin.
Pick: SMU +2 (-110). Low confidence.
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Army
Coming off a victory in the NCAA Tournament(‘s play-in game), Fairleigh Dickinson has a lot to be excited about this season. They’re expected to compete again for an NEC championship. Their nonconference slate, while not exactly loaded, includes trips to Notre Dame and Kentucky. They graduated part of their core, but point guard Jahlil Jenkins is back, as are big men Elyjah Williams and Kaleb Bishop. As far as NEC teams go, they’re fairly fearsome.
The NEC, though, is not as strong as the Patriot League, so while Army is expected to be a postseason non-factor, they aren’t far off Fairleigh Dickinson in terms of quality. Also helping the Black Knights is their breakneck style of play. Fairleigh Dickinson doesn’t run a very deep rotation, and with Xzavier Malone-Key’s status uncertain, tonight’s likely to turn into a battle over tempo. If Army can control the pace, the visitors may struggle to keep up.
Pick: Army +1 (-110). Low confidence.
