Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,808 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 2% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
Bryant @ Clemson
Bryant had a good year last year…within the NEC. Clemson should have them outclassed.
Pick: Clemson -11.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Central Michigan @ Eastern Illinois
Central Michigan likes to run. Eastern Illinois’s lost their first two (@ Northwestern, @ Saint Louis) so badly that they’re probably undervalued.
Pick: Over 139 (-110). Medium confidence.
Pick: Eastern Illinois to win +140. Low confidence.
Grambling State @ New Mexico
This is a longshot, and New Mexico’s played great ball so far compared to expectations in Richard Pitino’s first year there. Still, there seems to be too much of a reaction to the first two Lobos games in this line.
Pick: Grambling State to win +420. Low confidence.
San Diego @ California
Terrible game from Cal in their opener, bad game in their second game of the year. San Diego should give them a fight, but Cal’s the better team. Sometimes games like the UCSD one happen.
Pick: California to win -170. Medium confidence.
Utah Valley @ Pepperdine
Terrible games from Pepperdine all over the place so far. They’re the better team here, though, and by a decent amount.
Pick: Pepperdine to win -165. Medium confidence.
San José State @ Stanford
And Stanford played terribly as well this weekend, but again: Don’t put too much stock in a single game. Also, not sure it’s coming across in the line how much work Tim Miles has in front of him at SJSU.
Pick: Stanford -18.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
