Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,356 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.9% across 1,602 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Just college basketball today. We’re two games above .500 on the year, but that’s only an 8-6 mark right now.
Richmond @ College of Charleston
Richmond’s exceeded (KenPom’s) expectations so far, but Charleston just held UNC close for a lot of the game despite allowing 102 points, and the market *loved* that performance.
We’ll take the program that’s been playing well.
Pick: Richmond +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Butler @ Penn State
Thad Matta might have a great first year at Butler, but this line seems to be forgetting just how bad the situation was there when he walked in. This team lost nineteen games last year. And they weren’t playing Penn State’s schedule.
Pick: Penn State -5.5 (-118). Low confidence.
