Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,932 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got more college basketball, and we’ve got more NFL. Here’s how we’re doing in each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: It’s bad. On the season, we’re 3–5. We’re down 2.23 units and we’re down 28%. It’s still early, though.
Single-game NFL bets: Also bad. On the season, we’re 12–15–6. We’re down 4.41 units and we’re down 13%. It is not early.
Denver @ Buffalo
There’s an easy narrative here which says that the Broncos are figuring it out. Sean Payton’s been in there a while, they beat the Chiefs, and they’ve now won two straight and are coming off a bye. We’re guessing that’s the narrative that’s overhyped, but we also don’t trust the Bills. So, we’re laying up and going with the moneyline. It doesn’t pay much, but it’s something.
Pick: Buffalo to win –386. Low confidence.
Michigan @ St. John’s
Unless markets are fading the return of Juwan Howard, which would be funny (he reportedly participated in shootaround this morning but it’s unclear to me if he’ll be on the sideline tonight), this line is a big reaction to St. John’s beating up Stony Brook and no reaction to Michigan beating two teams better than Stony Brook (and beating them by wider margins). It’ll be a bigtime atmosphere tonight at Madison Square Garden, but that doesn’t mean St. John’s will have a great home-court advantage. We expect the experienced Michigan rotation to be comfortable in the moment.
Pick: Michigan +3 (–110). Low confidence.
