Editor’s Note: Joe Stunardi is our resident guy-who-knows-numbers. He’d say not to read too much into this, but over a sample size of 214 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT have had an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s about as successful as a bettor who wins 54% of their straight bets.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us at allthingsnit@gmail.com.
Three picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written.
- FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Spotrac are all great.
- The writeups for each pick aren’t justifications. The justification for each is that the numbers I’m using indicate its expected payout is positive by more than a standard deviation or two. The writeups are just words about the teams playing the games.
San Francisco @ Cincinnati
One of the Giants’ lonely bright spots thus far has been the performance of key members of their bullpen. More established names like Will Smith and Sam Dyson have performed at or above expectations, but the real story is a pair of lesser-known figures: Reyes Moronta and Trevor Gott.
Moronta—a 26-year-old homegrown talent for the Giants out of the Dominican Republic—demonstrated these capabilities in 2018, posting 1.3 WAR (averaged between fWAR and bWAR) over 69 appearances, with a 2.49 ERA and a 3.24 FIP. But 2019 is going even better for him, as through 15 outings his ERA sits at 1.69, his FIP is hardly higher (1.90), and he’s already contributed half a win of value relative to a replacement-level reliever.
Gott is also 26, but is anything but homegrown. Drafted and signed by the Padres in 2013 following his junior season at the University of Kentucky, the sixth-round pick has bounced around the league, traded to the Angels in 2014 alongside Huston Street, traded to the Nationals in exchange for Yunel Escobar following 2015, and designated for assignment by the Nationals in February of this year, after which he was bought off waivers by the Giants. He first broke into the big leagues in 2015 with Anaheim, making what remains a career-high 48 appearances, and while his performance was fine in 2015 and 2016, the man struggled mightily across 2017 and 2018, posting a 5.68 ERA over 20 MLB outings last season, with an even worse 6.21 FIP.
This year, Gott has been much better than fine. His ERA sits at 1.59. His FIP is only 2.03. He’s striking out a batter an inning. He has yet to allow a home run.
What the Giants do with both come the trade deadline depends in large part on their long-term projections for each, but at the very least, San Francisco might suddenly have two very valuable trade chips.
Pick: San Francisco to win +130. Low confidence.
Seattle @ New York (AL)
It’s hard to believe Félix Hernández is only 33, given this is his 15th major league season, and given that feeling of twilight that’s shadowed him these the last four years.
At least so far this season, though, things have been a bit better. Of course, he’s nowhere close to his 2009-2014 glory, but at least over six starts, he’s been better than the last two seasons, and it’s fair to speculate he might be adjusting to his new capabilities. After shifting markedly from his straight fastball to his sinker in 2018, he’s made a similar flip between changeups and curveballs this year, forgoing the former in favor of the latter more often than ever before.
It’s true that Hernández’s days as an ace are over. It’s true that his days as a major league pitcher may be limited. But while the curtain may be closing, and the best part of the show is certainly done, it’s ok to hope for a second act.
Pick: New York (AL) to win -140. Low confidence.
Washington @ Milwaukee
Max Scherzer’s FIP (2.17) is the second-best among qualified starters this year.
All he has to show for it is a 4.08 ERA and a 1-4 record.
I’ve written previously in these blurbs that Scherzer is probably fine. His season is young, and it’s hard to imagine a universe in which his ERA doesn’t finish closer to three than four. But his .377 BABIP (a massive jump from his .289 career average, and an even larger jump from his average since coming to the Nationals), may be more troubling than FIP suggests. It’s accompanied by a jump in the percent of hard contact allowed from 28.5% (over his career) to 38.1% (this season).
His velocity isn’t down, and his pitch-mix is similar to what it was in 2016 and 2017 after a measured pivot from sliders to cutters in 2018 (I don’t know enough about the measurements to know if 2018 was actually an aberration, or if some of his sliders were simply behaving more like cutters). But he is walking hitters at a lower rate than he ever has in the majors, so perhaps hitters are swinging more freely? It would take a deeper dive to confirm this (a deeper dive that may be coming, so stay tuned), but it’s worth watching.
Pick: Washington to win -105. Low confidence.
