Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,390 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Futures odds, as usual, come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus online in those markets. First, though…
Tampa Bay @ Anaheim
It sounds like Shohei Ohtani’s going to be ok, and if he starts, I’d assume he is ok after getting hit on the elbow last night. I have a hard time believing the Angels would start him if there was any doubt about his health.
Pick: Anaheim +1.5 (-160). Low confidence.
Pittsburgh @ San Diego
Miguel Diaz is starting for San Diego tonight, and my assumption is that he’s going to be an opener in a bullpen game. If he works between two and three innings, this is good value. If he works more than that, things are probably going well, but even ignoring that it only drops to ok value. You could do worse.
Pick: San Diego -1.5 (+105). Low confidence.
NL West Champion
This isn’t a repudiation of the Dodgers as much as a repudiation of the Giants. If someone who isn’t the Dodgers wins the NL West, it’s vastly more likely it’s San Diego than San Francisco. Even right now, the Padres are only a game and a half back.
Pick: San Diego +310. Low confidence.
AL Central Champion
The White Sox have recovered enough from their start to be the favorite here, but at 10-to-1? With a Cy Young candidate and a separate MVP candidate? It’s a good time to take a shot, especially if you’ve been following these exactly and have the Royals in your portfolio like I do.
Pick: Cleveland +1000. Low confidence.
World Series Champion
It’s our first World Series bet of the year, and it’s not as good of value as most of our futures are, which is to say it’s good value but not great. The thing is, the Yankees are a fairly likely World Series contender (for context, they’re a more likely division champion than the White Sox), so if there’s any sort of decent value to be had on them, taking it can help round out your portfolio if you’re worried about profit probability in addition to just expected value. Now’s the time.
Pick: New York (AL) +750. Low confidence.
