Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 892 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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One pick for tonight, and a pair of futures for the MAC Tournament.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Wright State vs. UIC—Horizon League Semifinals
UIC’s offense has issues, and while they may get a slight reprieve from those issues against Wright State tonight (the Raiders don’t force many turnovers or allow teams to the free throw line in the first place, helping to neutralize UIC’s biggest weaknesses), they should never be expected to put up the kind of 95-point offensive performance they did Tuesday against IUPUI. For one thing, making 69% of two-point field goal attempts is outrageous, and for another, few defenses are as bad as IUPUI’s.
It’s the other end that makes this under a play.
UIC has either the best or second-best defense in the Horizon League. It’s neck-and-neck with Northern Kentucky overall, and in league play, UIC’s performed measurably better. In the conference with the highest offensive rebound percentage in the country (thanks not insignificantly to Wright State’s Loudon Love, who will be the biggest factor tonight), UIC’s been the best of anyone at preventing them, and their perimeter defense has been great.
It’s possible this total is being inflated because both these teams can play up-tempo. It’s possible it’s because of what UIC did offensively last Tuesday. Whatever the case, the under’s viable—one of the more viable options on the board.
Pick: Under 150 (-115). Low confidence.
Future: MAC Tournament Champion
The MAC Tournament starts tonight, but the quarterfinals aren’t until Thursday. When they get here, Akron will be lined up as the top seed, while Ball State sits in the three-hole across the bracket.
Akron and Ball State are, by most measures, the two best teams in the MAC. Bowling Green got between them in the conference standings, but they did so on the back of a wild and doubtfully-sustainable record in one-possession games. Akron’s significantly better. Ball State’s better.
The bigger risk to Ball State than losing to Bowling Green is getting past Kent State in their opener. Kent State plays Eastern Michigan tonight, so there’s a chance Ball State won’t have to face this fear, but they’re the biggest threat on that side of the bracket, checking in as the third-best team in the league in KenPom. Similarly, Akron’s worst-case semifinal is not a game against Northern Illinois, the four-seed, but one against Buffalo, seeded fifth. Buffalo and Kent State aren’t more than a few points better than Bowling Green and NIU, but those points add up when simulating out this tournament.
Overall, taking both of these gives you a better-than-50% shot at a winner, with a nice payoff if either wins. It also opens up some hedging options, if that’s your thing.
Pick: Akron (+200). Low confidence.
Pick: Ball State (+525). Low confidence.
