Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,277 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Futures lines are coming from Bovada due to the absence of a reliable Vegas consensus. But first:
West Coast Conference Tournament: BYU vs. Pepperdine
BYU and Pepperdine split their regular season series, but if that’s what’s pushed this line down from where it opened, it’s created opportunity for the rest of us. Most teams playing a WCC schedule would drop one they shouldn’t. BYU’s happened to be in Malibu. Over the rest of the conference season, the Cougars were flawless, losing to no one not named Gonzaga. And over the last month, BYU’s played its best ball, rising from 49th in KenPom entering February 4th’s game against Portland to 20th going into tonight.
Pick: BYU -8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament Champion
I was low on Oklahoma during their surge. Their best wins during that stretch either came at home or against a Covid-riddled Texas. They may have “deserved” their ranking in the polls, because the polls aren’t a direct reflection of how good teams are, but they were never a top ten team (they were only briefly a top twenty team). Our model never loved them. It currently thinks they might miss the tournament field should they lose to Iowa State on Wednesday.
Now, though, the tide has turned, and Oklahoma, at least in this betting market, is wildly undervalued. They only win the Big 12 Tournament in 3.9% of our simulations, but that leaves a ton of value at 50-to-1 odds, and given that they 1) get to play Iowa State first and 2) are on the opposite side of the bracket from Baylor, it wouldn’t be all that surprising for the senior-heavy Sooners to make a run, at least far enough to open up hedging opportunities.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +5000. Low confidence.
ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament Champion
Again with the which-side-of-the-bracket questions. Georgia Tech, Clemson, Syracuse, and NC State are all on Virginia’s side of the ACC bracket. Syracuse is the eighth seed. NC State is the ninth seed. Georgia Tech is the fourth seed. Clemson is the fifth seed.
The nuts of this is that someone is probably overvalued in the ACC. And it actually doesn’t look like it’s Virginia. Our model has the Cavaliers as the favorites, with a negative eROI (-4.8%) but a better one than the ACC median, which is -47.8% (books must make a killing on conference tournaments).
Who’s overvalued, then, if not Virginia? The teams with the lowest eROI’s are the bottom two: Boston College (-97.5%) and Wake Forest (-100.0%, because Wake Forest didn’t win the tournament in any of our 10,000 simulations last night). But those aren’t the ones making that half of the bracket look stronger than it is. Instead, it’s probably Louisville (-75.9% eROI), UNC (-56.2%), Virginia Tech (-42.6%), and Duke (-47.8%). Florida State’s at a reasonable -15.0%, so through some combination of over and undervaluing, they appear to have evened out, but those other four…
Basically, it’s more likely than the odds imply that someone from Virginia’s half wins the tournament. And it’s more likely than the odds imply that it isn’t Virginia.
Pick: Georgia Tech to win +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Clemson to win +2000. Low confidence.
Pick: Syracuse to win +5000. Low confidence.
Pick: NC State to win +8000. Low confidence.
